Financial breakdown coverage — stranded assets, climate disasters and sovereign debt, de-dollarization, farmland and water rights — as provenanced claim-state bundles.
<p>Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as the AI trade bounces back</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jun/08/openai-ipo-files-for-public-stock-market"><strong>OpenAI confidentially files for initial public offering on US stock market</strong></a></p></li></ul><p><strong>The pound is strengthening against the US dollar today, as calm returns to the markets.</strong></p><p>Sterling is up a third of a cent at $1.3376.</p><p>A light week in terms of macroeconomic news out of the UK meant the focus for sterling traders was mostly elsewhere. We did see an MPC member (Greene) stating that she would consider voting for a hike at the next Bank of England meeting later this month.</p><p>A notable upward revision in the PMI business indices last week suggests that the initial confidence drop was overstated and that the UK economy is more resilient to the Middle East events than first feared. We look to this week’s April monthly GDP data, released Friday, to validate this modestly optimistic view.</p><p>“Just when the supersized tech rally was looking a little tired, along comes the news of OpenAI’s decision to IPO.</p><p>Presumably the move has been spurred along by Anthropic’s recent move towards a public listing, but and now markets face the test of yet another superheavyweight firm listing to test demand for these highly-valued companies that promise to reshape not just the investing landscape, but the entirety of human society.”</p><p>The race is on to extract money out of the roar of enthusiasm for companies providing the backbone to the artificial intelligence revolution. There’s now a hat trick of mega listings on the cards, with OpenAI’s filing for an IPO coming hot on the heels of Anthropic and SpaceX. The research company behind the hugely successful ChatGPT had first-mover advantage, buoyed by an early deal with Microsoft, but Anthropic has gained ground and is tackling adeptly from behind, winning reams of enterprise contracts.</p><p>The price of staying at the top of the game is eye-watering for OpenAI – it’s estimated to be spending more than $100 billion a year on the infrastructure and processing power to support its services and power the next generation of AI models. To stay high and dry in its AI fortress, the company reckons that by spending at this level, it will create a moat too difficult to cross for the competition, enabling it to keep raking in revenues and eventually turn big profits.</p><p>OpenAI is currently valued at $850bn, the ‘baby’ of the group, since Anthropic is now valued ahead of OpenAI at $965bn. The company laid out the ‘third phase of OpenAI’ on Monday and said that it is undertaking research into artificial general intelligence, and looking at becoming a ‘product company’.</p><p>The latter is interesting for investors, since it would be a major potential source of future revenue. Although it is early days, if OpenAI launches its own product range, it could become a major competitor to Apple and Google, and their share prices are worth watching closely on Tuesday.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/jun/09/chip-stocks-bounce-back-kospi-openai-wall-street-float-stock-markets-oil-live-news-updates">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Forecast for this year downgraded to 2.5% and inflation expected to jump as a result of war in the Middle East </p><p>Global economic growth will slow to 2.5% this year as a result of the war in the Middle East – the weakest since the Covid pandemic – as inflation and borrowing costs rise, the World Bank has warned.</p><p>The Washington-based development bank has downgraded growth forecasts for two-thirds of countries in its half-yearly Global Economic Prospects report. The bank estimated that global growth was 2.7% in 2025.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/11/global-growth-slow-lowest-level-pandemic-world-bank">Continue reading...</a>
<p>European Central Bank has lifted interest rates and warned that the war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures</p><p><strong>The financial markets are surprisingly calm this morning, as conflict erupts again in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>European stock markets are mostly higher this morning, while the oil price is now slipping back.</p><p>As has often been the case during the Iran conflict, the UK’s flagship index has found support from its collection of energy companies and more traditionally defensive names. Miners and other China-linked stocks were lifted by data suggesting the country is investing heavily in AI and consuming raw materials at a healthy rate.</p><p>Selling in AI-related stocks, of which London has very few, put shares on Wall Street under pressure yesterday and that’s extended to Asia today.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/jun/11/ryanair-investigation-seating-children-eurozone-interest-rates-middle-east-oil-uk-housing-live-news-updates">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Before the conflict began, inflation was at 2.4%, but the closure of the strait of Hormuz has affected energy prices</p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/donaldtrump">Donald Trump</a> said “I love the inflation” after new data showed that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/inflation">inflation</a> jumped to an annual rate of 4.2% in May, the third consecutive monthly increase since the start of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-israel-war-on-iran">Iran war</a> and a three-year high.</p><p>Speaking from the White House on Wednesday, the US president <a href="https://x.com/Acyn/status/2064741127249690894">said</a> that he was not concerned about inflation because of recent developments in the conflict.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/10/inflation-report-rate">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Our roadmap has been shaped by experts across the world, from UN agencies to grassroots movements. We call on political leaders at all levels to use it</p><p>We live in an age of manufactured scarcity. In a world richer than ever before, <a href="https://social.desa.un.org/world-summit-2025/blog/the-sustainable-development-goals-have-improved-millions-of-lives-over-the">roughly one 10th of the world’s population still lives in extreme destitution</a>. Millions of people cannot afford enough food, proper housing or basic healthcare, while a tiny minority accumulates unprecedented wealth and power. At the same time, droughts, megafires, floods and heatwaves remind us that our economies are pushing the planet beyond its limits.</p><p>These are not separate crises. They are symptoms of an economic model that has reached the end of the road. Poverty and inequality are not accidents; they are predictable outcomes of policy choices: how we design tax systems, regulate labour markets, value care, structure public services and decide whose needs and whose voices matter. Crucially, if governments can manufacture poverty, they can also dismantle it.</p><p><strong>Olivier De Schutter</strong> is the chair of New Economies for Eradicating Poverty; <strong>Joseph Stiglitz</strong> is a Nobel laureate in economics; <strong>Jayati Ghosh</strong> is professor of economics at University of Massachusetts Amherst; <strong>Thomas Piketty</strong> is professor of economics at the Paris School of Economics; <strong>Kate Raworth</strong> is an economist at Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute; <strong>Jason Hickel</strong> is a political economist and professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/10/economists-maths-growth-doomed-strategy-un-agencies-political-leaders">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Youth unemployment is harming the mental health of a generation. A sluggish economy will only make things harder</p><p>Unemployment is bad for anyone, but really hard on the young. That’s because prolonged periods of worklessness in your late teens or early 20s scar you for life. As <a href="https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/5/2216/files/2026/06/Blanchflower-Bryson-and-Bell-2026-Deteriorating-Mental-Well%E2%80%90Being-of-the-Young-in-the-UK.pdf">academic studies </a>have shown, it can cause depression and affect earning potential for years to come. There is a clear link between poor mental health and being unemployed.</p><p>That’s why <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/may/28/a-record-of-failure-whats-in-the-first-part-of-alan-milburns-neet-report">Alan Milburn’s probe into youth unemployment</a> won’t be one of the government-commissioned reports that is quickly filed away and allowed to gather dust. It makes uncomfortable reading for ministers. The number of people aged 16 to 24 not in education, employment or training (Neets) is rising, and the costs of inactivity are increasing. Britain has a jobs problem, and it’s getting worse.</p><p>Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/11/young-people-britain-joblessness-epidemic-labour-mental-health-economy">Continue reading...</a>
<p>They’re about to get more AI rammed down their throats, stuck into their pension plans and investment portfolios</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/jun/12/spacex-stock-market-debut">Share your views on SpaceX’s stock market debut</a></p></li></ul><p>Americans are growing worried about what artificial intelligence portends for their futures. Eight in 10 <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3955">Americans report</a> concern over AI, compared with a third who report being excited, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. More than half think it will do more harm than good in their daily lives. Seven out of 10 think it will reduce the number of available jobs.</p><p>Skeptical though they may be, they are about to get more AI rammed down their throats and stuck into their pension plans and their investment portfolios, whether they want it or not – binding their futures ever more tightly to the frenzied, risky, multibillion-dollar dash by technology moguls to develop machines capable of mimicking human thought processes to take over cognitive tasks.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/ai-ipos-stock-market">Continue reading...</a>
<p>High street bank to buy UK business from US fintech company Acorns as it targets young people</p><p>Barclays is to buy an app designed to help children understand and manage their money, as it targets young people in affluent families.</p><p>The high street bank has agreed to buy the UK business of GoHenry, which provides children with personalised debit cards carrying their name, from the US fintech company Acorns, which will retain GoHenry’s US branch.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/barclays-buy-gohenry-children-debit-card-money-app-acorns">Continue reading...</a>
<p>While venues could stay open until 2am, rising costs remain a far bigger concern for many landlords </p><p>Picture the scene: it’s 1am on a sultry July night and Jude Bellingham has just scored the decisive penalty to send England into the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/football/world-cup-2026">World Cup</a> semi-final. Cue wild celebrations among millions of pub goers, fuelled by the realisation that there is still an hour until closing time.</p><p>Keir Starmer may have imagined a national morale-boosting spectacle such as this when his government told hospitality venues that they could stay open until 2am on some World Cup match days.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/world-cup-late-openings-britain-struggling-pubs">Continue reading...</a>
<p>European Central Bank increases main deposit rate to 2.25%, with two further rises expected by next spring</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/jun/11/ryanair-investigation-seating-children-eurozone-interest-rates-middle-east-oil-uk-housing-live-news-updates">Business live – latest updates</a></p></li></ul><p>The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 in response to higher inflation caused by the war in Iran.</p><p>The ECB raised its main deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% in a move that financial markets expect to be the first of three rises by next spring.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/11/ecb-eurozone-interest-rates-iran-war-inflation">Continue reading...</a>
<p>One economist says Musk’s world-first level of extreme wealth highlights massive economic disparities and could have profound effects on society</p><p><br></p><p>SpaceX’s shares will be supported by a number of “forced buyers”, such as tracker funds.</p><p><strong>Richard Hunter, </strong>head of markets at <strong>interactive</strong> <strong>investor, </strong>explains:</p><p>The Nasdaq index has tweaked its rules, which has allowed SpaceX to join the index on a fast-track basis. It remains to be seen whether the company will have a disproportionate effect on the index in terms of weighting, but in any event its inclusion guarantees some additional and significant buying pressure.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/jun/12/spacex-float-us-stock-market-share-elon-musk-trillionaire-largest-ipo-ever-live-news-updates">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Trump says hundreds of tankers have escaped Iran’s blockade. Data suggests shipments are increasing but many questions remain</p><p>Donald Trump has claimed that the US has been conducting a “secret mission” in the strait of Hormuz to help Gulf petrostates bypass Iran’s chokehold on oil flows – which has roiled global energy markets for months.</p><p>In televised comments from the Oval Office on Wednesday, the president claimed Iran was unaware that dozens of tankers had been escorted out of the blockaded channel at night with their transmitters off.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/12/us-secret-mission-oil-hormuz-trump-iran-blockade">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Brent crude falls as optimism rises that strait of Hormuz could reopen over the weekend</p><p>Global oil prices fell on Friday to lows not seen since the first week of the Iran crisis after Donald Trump claimed he was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/11/trump-seize-control-iran-oil-gas-ceasefire">close to reaching a peace deal</a> with Tehran.</p><p>The price of Brent crude began to tumble from about $93 a barrel in overnight trade after the US president called off further military strikes against Iran scheduled for the evening.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/global-oil-prices-trump-us-iran-deal-brent-crude-strait-of-hormuz">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Gambling business, which also owns Betfair, to focus on New York in latest high-profile blow to UK stock market</p><p>The gambling group that owns Paddy Power and Betfair is to scrap its listing on the London Stock Exchange, in another blow for the UK’s shrinking stock market.</p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/nov/27/paddy-power-owner-says-raising-online-gambling-taxes-will-hit-profits-hard">Flutter Entertainment</a>, the world’s largest online betting company, told investors that it would cancel its London shares on 3 August, blaming low levels of trading in the stock and high costs.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/paddy-power-flutter-entertainment-delist-london-stock-exchange">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Four found guilty get tougher conditions as judge says actions were ‘designed to intimidate the UK government and a section of the public’</p><p>A judge has imposed lengthy custodial sentences on four Palestine Action activists who smashed up drones and other equipment at an Israeli arms manufacturer’s UK factory after ruling that there was a “terrorist connection” to their offending.</p><p>Charlotte Head, 30, and Leona Kamio, 30, were each jailed for five years and Fatema Rajwani, 21, was sentenced to four years and 8 months for criminal damage in relation to a 2024 break-in at the Elbit Systems UK site in Gloucestershire. Samuel Corner, 23, who was additionally convicted of grievous bodily harm without intent for striking Sgt Kate Evans with a sledgehammer, was sentenced to seven years and eight months. Each will also spend an additional year on licence and be subject to 15 years of terrorist notification requirements.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/12/palestine-action-activists-sentenced-terrorists-damage-elbit-systems-uk-israel">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Starmer shows no will to pursue the main options for rising commitments: spending cuts, tax rises or borrowing</p><p>When Keir Starmer wanted to promise Donald Trump that the UK would increase defence spending, he decided to fund it by slashing the UK’s aid budget – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/28/anneliese-dodds-resigns-keir-starmer-cut-aid-budget">losing a cabinet minister</a>, Anneliese Dodds, in the process.</p><p>This time around, with John Healey’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) demanding an additional £18.5bn over four years to fund the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/09/rows-over-defence-investment-plan-have-badly-harmed-cabinet-relations">defence investment plan</a>, there was no such lever to hand.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/12/rachel-reeves-departmental-salami-slicing-uk-defence-budget-keir-starmer">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Decision to not overturn fallen crypto mogul’s 25-year prison sentence was handed down by three-judge panel </p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/sam-bankman-fried">Sam Bankman-Fried</a> on Friday lost his bid to overturn his fraud conviction and 25-year prison sentence over the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange he founded.</p><p>The decision was handed down by a three-judge panel of the New York-based second US circuit court of appeals.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Initial public offering for aerospace and AI company made Musk the world’s first trillionaire as share prices jumped</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/jun/12/spacex-stock-market-debut">Share your views on SpaceX’s stock market debut</a></p></li></ul><p>SpaceX made the biggest stock market debut in history on Friday after nearly two and a half decades as a private company. Public trading began around midday with a starting share price of $150, which quickly jumped by a double digit percentage and sent the company’s valuation above $2tn, where it remained through market close. The company’s initial public offering made the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, the world’s first trillionaire.</p><p>“It is certainly hard to believe that a little company that started in a warehouse in El Segundo is now going public with the largest IPO ever,” Musk said in an address at SpaceX’s headquarters Friday morning. He reiterated the company’s mission to “make humanity multiplanetary” and “take the fiction out of science fiction”.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/jun/12/spacex-stock-price-ipo-spcx">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Peter Kyle exaggerates role of British Business Bank and National Wealth Fund in nurturing firms</p><p>Is the business secretary, Peter Kyle, suffering from SpaceX fever? It must be something of that sort because his launch this week of a “concierge service” to allow fast-growing companies to navigate Whitehall bureaucracy came with an extraordinary pitch. The new service is “part of his [Kyle’s] quest to nurture the UK’s first trillion-dollar firm”, said <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-concierge-service-and-visa-scheme-unveiled-to-help-britains-fastest-growing-firms-scale-and-attract-talent">the official announcement</a>.</p><p>One trillion dollars is about £750bn so Kyle’s quest is not a small undertaking when you see that the largest company on the London Stock Exchange, HSBC, is worth £235bn. Arm Holdings, the fast-growing UK chip designer that is listed in the US (sadly), is worth £280bn. So Kyle is saying he thinks he can “nurture” something much bigger.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2026/jun/10/peter-kyle-uk-state-activism-bbb-nwf">Continue reading...</a>
<p>GDP hit by higher energy prices caused by Middle East conflict, after 0.3% rise in March</p><p>The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in April as the Iran war began to take its toll on growth, official figures show.</p><p>As energy prices have risen as a result of the conflict, after Iran closed off the strait of Hormuz – a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/01/us-israel-strikes-iran-oil-price">vital shipping route for global trade</a> – the UK’s strong expansion in the first quarter slid into reverse.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/uk-economy-gdp-shrank-april-iran-war-held-back-growth">Continue reading...</a>
<p>Consumer sentiment still remains at historically low levels amid Iran war and rising inflation, new survey shows</p><p>Easing gas prices are making Americans feel better about their personal finances and the economy in June, but consumer sentiment remains at historically low levels amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to new survey data from the University of Michigan.</p><p>The latest numbers come as SpaceX <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/jun/12/spacex-stock-price-ipo-spcx">marks its</a> historic stock market debut, which has made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Yet many Americans still feel like they are struggling even as the stock market reaches record highs.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/12/consumer-sentiment-june-data-gas-prices">Continue reading...</a>